M3.2 solar blast from Sunspot 1402 produced Earth-directed CME

By

chillymanjaro

The long-duration blast at active region 1402 produced M3.2 solar flare and CME which is heading toward Earth. This was two-wave flare and first CME wave was overtaken by the 2nd wave due to its higher speed velocity.The major bulk of the plasma cloud appears to be directed north. A minor R1 Level Radio Blackout resulted. Active Regions 1401 and 1402, positioned near the center of the disk, dominate the x-ray imagery today. Expect additional R1 (Minor) Radio Blackouts from flares, and given their location, an eruption of a CME in the near future would certainly have an impact on the earth’s magnetic field. There are currrently 13 active regions facing Earth.

Images of solar flare recorded by STEREO A and B spacecrafts

NASA’s twin STEREO spacecraft recorded an impressive CME emerging from the blast site and here you can watch movie #1 & movie #2.

SOHO imagery from LASCO C2 and LASCO C3

Earth-directed CME

Confirmation of earth-directed CME came from analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab with forecasts of strong geomagnetic storms this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st somewhere about 22:30 UTC. This should be exciting time for aurora watchers so we expect some amazing images. NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% to 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours in response to a possible glancing blow from a CME that took place on January 16th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

Sweep frequency radio events

Today’s event caused Type II and Type IV Sweep Frequency events. Type II and IV events are caused by slower-moving solar material propagating outward at speeds varying between approximately 800 and 1600 kilometers per second. Type II and IV radio bursts are of particular importance. Solar material plunging through the corona generates characteristic radio bursts. Events which cause Type II and/or IV radio sweep events may indicate the potential for increased magnetic activity (and decreased propagation quality) within 48 hours. Sweep frequency radio events are capable of producing Short Wave Fades (SWFs) and Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SIDs). SWFs and SIDs cause absorption of radio signals (due to intense ionization) at frequencies up to and well in excess of 500 MHz. Microwave continuum bursts can affect frequencies up to 30 GHz. Frequencies in the HF region can be completely blacked out for a period of time during intense energetic events.

Source: http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com

Per chi chi non conosce l'inglese:

Sul sole c'è stata un esplosione solare che ha espulso del plasma ad elevata temperatura che potrebbe impattare con la magnetosfera terrestre. Questo era previsto per il 21 Gennaio, quindi chi si trova a latitudini piuttosto elevate avrà sicuramente visto delle bellissime aurore polari. A causa di questa bolla di plasma solare che impatterà con la magnetosfera terrestre nelle prossime 48 ore ci potrebbero essere dei black out nelle comunicazioni soprattutto sopra al sud America.